Old Dominion News

State Sen. Amanda Chase is the “clear and early favorite” to be the Republican nominee for governor in 2021, says radio talk show host and political analyst John Fredericks.

Chase (R-Chesterfield) declared in February her candidacy to replace Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, who is barred by state law from seeking re-election. She said she was compelled to run to battle “the liberal, socialistic agenda” that was taking control of state government.

“People see her as a fighter who doesn’t back down,” Fredericks said.

He said it will be a crowded field but that may work to her advantage. Fredericks said she has a solid base of 30%, but her ceiling seems to be 35%. That might be enough to carry her to victory in a primary battle, but he gives her little chance in a general election.

Fredericks has a good track record in picking winners. In 2015, he announced that a political newcomer with a background in casinos, real estate and reality TV would claim the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Donald Trump did just that en route to becoming the 45th president of the United States, with Fredericks casting a ballot for him at the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Fredericks served as the Virginia chairman of the 2016 Trump campaign and remains a strong supporter, holding the same title this year. He was impressed by Trump’s performance in the second and final presidential debate and said it will help motivate the ground game that the president needs for a large turnout to win on Nov. 3.

Fredericks, a member of the Trump-Pence 2020 Advisory Board, said there have been 15 Trump rallies in the state this year and Chase has attended 10 of them. She is tying herself to the president and that will play well with Republican voters next year, no matter how the presidential race winds up.

“Her social media is so raw, it’s endearing,” Fredericks said.

When he first met her in 2015, she seemed unsure of herself around the media. Fredericks said he has seen great improvements. She has welcomed controversy, including by wearing a .38 Special on her hip, even in the Capitol.

“She’s a quick study,” he said.

The 2021 campaign season is already underway in Virginia, and Fredericks is keeping a close eye on the declared candidates and those considering a run.

Other potential GOP candidates include former Speaker of the Virginia House Kirk Cox, who filed paperwork to run. Cox (R-Colonial Heights) has served in the House of Delegates for 30 years and was removed as speaker after a single term.

Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman, in his third term, is considering a bid for the nomination, he said this month.

A pair of businessmen, Pete Snyder, who sought the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor in 2013, and Glenn Youngkin, also are eyeing the job. Fredericks said Youngkin has no chance to win over Republican voters.

“It’s laughable,” he said. “He made his billions selling out American workers to China.”

Youngkin has said he is willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to win the nomination, but Fredericks doesn’t think that will matter.

“He is the antithesis, the polar opposite of our America First movement,” he said. “We have a movement, he has the money. I’ll take movement over money any day of the week.”

A May letter from Youngkin may also come into question as the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) has refused to designate Antifa a hate group, while at the same time labeling Christian and Conservative groups as “hate groups.”

Fredericks gets amped up talking about Youngkin, whom he said is “the swampiest of all the swamp groups” and has done extensive business with China.

On the Democratic side, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who served from 2014-18, is interested in regaining his old job. A candidate committee called Virginians for Common Good was formed this summer to raise money for a 2021 bid. A spokesman said McAuliffe is concentrating on helping defeat Trump before turning to future campaigns.

“We’ll see what happens in 2021,” McAuliffe told WAMU in 2019. “I will say this. I loved being governor.”

Fredericks said it won’t be a cakewalk for the former Democratic National Committee chairman with close ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

“I think he’s in a tough battle,” Frederick said.

He thinks Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax has a good chance at the nomination. Fairfax has been accused of sexual assault by a pair of women, but nothing has been substantiated, Fredericks said.

Other possible candidates include Attorney General Mark Herring, Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D-Prince William) and state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond).

Congressman Denver Lee Riggleman (R-5th District) could toss a wrench into the process. Riggleman, who lost a 2017 bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, will leave Congress after a single term. He was defeated in a 2020 convention after the primary was scrubbed.

Riggleman told Fredericks he may run for governor under a third-party banner or as an independent, saying the Virginia Republican Party is shattered.

Fredericks, who also has extensive newspaper experience as an editor and publisher, has the ultimate in job security at WJFN-FM and WJFN-AM. He owns the stations, which are licensed under MAGARadio Network LLC and Disruptor Radio, LLC.