2022: How government transfer reliance in Virginia has changed since 1970

2022: How government transfer reliance in Virginia has changed since 1970
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group — Official Website
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In 2022, government transfers accounted for 15.7% of total income in Virginia, a 10.1% rise from 5.6% in 1970, and a 3.2% increase over 2012’s 12.5%, according to information from the Economic Innovation Group. On a per capita basis, this equates to $10,811 per resident in 2022, up from $7,529 in 2012 and $1,357 in 1970.

Among Virginia’s counties, Wise + Norton County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 11% from 34.1% in 2012 to 45.1% in 2022, and up 31.1% from just 14% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Wise + Norton County jumped from $12,826 in 2012 to $18,549 in 2022, a stark contrast to the $2,347 recorded in 1970.

Lee County and Russell County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 10.6% from 2012.

Additionally, Dickenson County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 48.7% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Lee County and Wise + Norton County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 47% and 45.1% in 2022, respectively.

Compared to 1970, Dickenson County increased by 32.6%, while Lee County and Wise + Norton County have increased by 23.7% and 31.1%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Dickenson County received an average of $19,994 in transfers per capita, with Lee County and Wise + Norton County close behind at $18,105 and $18,549, respectively.

For comparison, the statewide average was 15.7% in 2022, showing a lower dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $10,811 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.

Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).

In Virginia, reliance on government transfers was just 5.6% (or $1,357 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 15.7% (or $10,811 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 10.1% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.

In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Virginia included:

  • Social Security: $3,598 per capita (33.3% of total transfers)
  • Medicare: $2,335 per capita (21.6% of total transfers)
  • Medicaid: $2,251 per capita (20.8% of total transfers)
  • Income Maintenance Programs: $1,077 per capita (10% of total transfers)

With 17% of the population aged 65 and older, Virginia has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.

Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans’ income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Virginia, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 5.6% (or $1,357 per capita) in 1970 to 15.7% (or $10,811 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.

According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.

Government Transfer Trends by County in Virginia, 2022
County Dependency on Transfers (%) Change Since 2012 Change Since 1970 Per Capita Amount (2022) Per Capita Change Since 2012 Per Capita Change Since 1970
Accomack County 29.1% 3.5% 17.5% $15,776 $4,721 $13,903
Albemarle + Charlottesville County 10.5% 0.9% 4.4% $9,527 $2,844 $8,159
Alleghany + Covington County 38% 9.6% 26.8% $17,584 $5,600 $15,585
Amelia County 25.8% 3.8% 16.2% $13,668 $4,107 $12,174
Amherst County 32.4% 7.4% 24.4% $14,496 $4,917 $13,236
Appomattox County 30.8% 4.7% 21.2% $14,139 $4,023 $12,430
Arlington County 5.4% 1.4% 2.7% $6,090 $1,985 $4,872
Augusta County 23.4% 2.9% 17.2% $12,368 $3,124 $11,093
Bath County 22.9% 3.4% 10.6% $17,143 $5,690 $15,104
Bedford County 23.6% 4.5% 15% $12,940 $3,787 $11,361
Bland County 35.5% 7.8% 23% $15,123 $4,845 $13,490
Botetourt County 21.5% 4.6% 12% $12,819 $3,999 $11,077
Brunswick County 41.1% 7.8% 32.5% $16,903 $5,594 $15,601
Buchanan County 44.7% 9.8% 34.1% $20,234 $6,458 $18,611
Buckingham County 36.5% 9.3% 25.4% $13,823 $5,384 $12,426
Campbell + Lynchburg County 32.6% 5.9% 24.8% $14,798 $3,725 $13,171
Caroline County 22.6% 4.1% 15.1% $11,660 $3,444 $10,354
Carroll + Galax County 40.1% 6.1% 28.1% $17,957 $5,677 $16,246
Charles City County 25.5% 4.8% 17.9% $14,560 $5,146 $13,427
Charlotte County 37.5% 5.4% 28.3% $16,976 $5,662 $15,577
Chesterfield County 15.9% 3.7% 11.6% $10,184 $3,342 $9,059
Clarke County 14.8% 3.6% 8% $11,532 $4,247 $9,946
Craig County 28.8% 4.3% 17.1% $13,628 $3,788 $11,767
Culpeper County 19.4% 4.4% 11.5% $10,828 $3,379 $9,310
Cumberland County 28.9% 2.4% 18% $13,408 $3,460 $11,795
Dickenson County 48.7% 9.8% 32.6% $19,994 $6,578 $17,500
Dinwiddie County 37.9% 8.7% 29.7% $17,388 $4,645 $15,931
Essex County 32% 6.8% 21.5% $16,528 $5,525 $14,885
Fairfax County 7.6% 1.9% 5.7% $7,726 $2,675 $7,025
Fauquier County 11.5% 2.9% 6.3% $9,494 $3,072 $8,200
Floyd County 28.7% 5% 18% $14,012 $4,662 $12,282
Fluvanna County 20.3% 3.6% 11.3% $10,816 $3,247 $9,327
Franklin County 26.4% 3.2% 18.1% $13,880 $4,055 $12,506
Frederick + Winchester County 16.5% 2.7% 9.2% $10,260 $3,160 $8,761
Giles County 31.3% 4.8% 20.3% $15,487 $4,627 $13,610
Gloucester County 22.2% 5.6% 15.1% $12,743 $4,149 $11,113
Goochland County 9.8% 0.6% 2.9% $11,441 $2,241 $10,160
Grayson County 38.1% 3.8% 25.3% $14,843 $3,178 $13,115
Greene County 20.6% 4.5% 11.3% $10,623 $3,436 $9,274
Greensville + Emporia County 39% 6.5% 27.5% $15,317 $4,819 $13,499
Halifax County 37.7% 7.1% 28.5% $16,787 $5,512 $15,307
Hanover County 14.2% 2.4% 9.4% $10,262 $3,234 $9,118
Henrico County 13.5% 2.4% 10.3% $10,380 $3,270 $9,522
Henry + Martinsville County 38.4% 5.9% 32.3% $18,234 $5,501 $17,052
Highland County 29% 4.4% 15.1% $14,651 $3,472 $12,665
Isle of Wight County 19.5% 4.4% 13.4% $12,467 $3,550 $11,221
James City + Williamsburg County 17.4% 3.8% 13.6% $13,205 $3,920 $12,322
King and Queen County 26.1% 3.6% 16.9% $14,439 $4,813 $12,963
King George County 14.8% 4.5% 11.3% $9,471 $3,470 $8,491
King William County 20.5% 4.1% 13.5% $11,196 $3,291 $9,778
Lancaster County 25.6% 1.4% 13.5% $18,546 $4,476 $16,304
Lee County 47% 10.6% 23.7% $18,105 $6,220 $15,346
Loudoun County 5.7% 1.6% 1.9% $5,534 $2,080 $4,426
Louisa County 23.6% 4.7% 14.3% $11,963 $3,538 $10,394
Lunenburg County 35.7% 5.6% 25.6% $13,916 $3,794 $12,383
Madison County 20.4% 3.7% 11.3% $11,540 $3,310 $9,947
Mathews County 25.3% 5.6% 11.7% $17,198 $5,728 $14,645
Mecklenburg County 37.4% 6.4% 28.8% $17,040 $5,110 $15,727
Middlesex County 29.7% 5.6% 14.1% $17,882 $5,517 $15,351
Montgomery + Radford County 18.3% 1.6% 11.5% $8,323 $2,241 $7,173
Nelson County 26.9% 5.4% 15.1% $17,399 $6,406 $15,645
New Kent County 10.9% 1% 3.7% $11,160 $3,770 $9,750
Northampton County 30.9% 4.3% 18.2% $19,870 $7,147 $17,929
Northumberland County 30.7% 4.6% 17.3% $18,848 $5,509 $16,632
Nottoway County 37.3% 4% 27.5% $16,770 $4,941 $15,004
Orange County 22.9% 4.2% 15.2% $13,473 $3,789 $11,776
Page County 28.2% 2.9% 17.7% $13,840 $3,962 $11,998
Patrick County 39.5% 6.8% 30.2% $15,903 $4,687 $14,428
Pittsylvania + Danville County 37.7% 6.8% 28.7% $16,975 $5,531 $15,427
Powhatan County 14.5% 1.7% 7.2% $9,860 $2,968 $8,684
Prince Edward County 35.2% 7.4% 26.5% $13,925 $5,021 $12,504
Prince George + Hopewell County 28.5% 7.9% 23.8% $11,315 $2,915 $10,356
Prince William County 12% 4% 9.6% $7,645 $2,901 $6,993
Pulaski County 30.4% 3.3% 22% $14,611 $3,507 $13,106
Rappahannock County 14.8% 2% 6.2% $11,764 $3,238 $10,179
Richmond County 30% 4.4% 19.1% $12,814 $3,487 $10,981
Roanoke + Salem County 21.3% 5% 16.1% $12,598 $3,574 $11,415
Rockbridge County 26.7% 3.7% 17.7% $12,931 $3,424 $11,419
Rockingham + Harrisonburg County 18.5% 1.6% 12.3% $9,496 $2,739 $8,283
Russell County 43% 10.6% 30% $17,290 $5,372 $15,457
Scott County 41.8% 8.2% 30.9% $16,552 $4,782 $14,969
Shenandoah County 22.3% 1.9% 13.2% $12,657 $3,642 $10,963
Smyth County 37% 6.4% 26.4% $16,428 $4,972 $14,758
Southampton + Franklin County 31.3% 6.3% 22.2% $15,739 $5,140 $14,225
Spotsylvania + Fredericksburg County 16.4% 4.1% 10.4% $10,267 $3,589 $8,796
Stafford County 13.9% 4.8% 10.3% $9,052 $3,516 $8,186
Surry County 28.3% 6.7% 18.8% $14,837 $5,545 $13,424
Sussex County 38.2% 9.6% 29.6% $14,413 $4,912 $13,072
Tazewell County 39.3% 10.3% 26.6% $17,291 $5,314 $15,078
Warren County 19.9% 4.2% 11.3% $11,183 $3,537 $9,348
Washington + Bristol County 32.1% 8.8% 21.3% $14,979 $4,156 $13,181
Westmoreland County 29.3% 5.2% 17.8% $14,822 $4,158 $12,990
Wise + Norton County 45.1% 11% 31.1% $18,549 $5,723 $16,202
Wythe County 34.2% 4.6% 23.2% $15,223 $4,376 $13,414
York + Poquoson County 14.3% 3.3% 11% $9,728 $2,783 $8,866
Alexandria (Independent City) 7.4% 2.2% 4.3% $7,739 $2,581 $6,567
Chesapeake (Independent City) 18.3% 5% 13.1% $10,688 $3,507 $9,512
Hampton (Independent City) 27.6% 6.8% 22.9% $13,406 $4,006 $12,273
Newport News (Independent City) 25.5% 6.8% 20.3% $11,968 $3,498 $10,719
Norfolk (Independent City) 25.4% 6.7% 19.9% $12,186 $3,963 $10,765
Portsmouth (Independent City) 31.3% 7.1% 23.9% $14,382 $4,003 $12,834
Richmond (Independent City) 17.5% 1.2% 9% $12,417 $2,781 $10,262
Roanoke (Independent City) 30.2% 6.4% 19% $15,349 $4,181 $12,724
Suffolk (Independent City) 21.1% 5.6% 13.3% $12,831 $4,128 $11,235
Virginia Beach (Independent City) 16.3% 4.1% 13.7% $10,750 $3,533 $9,983


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